I'm hoping that some good will come from this. I'd like to see some of the jobs China got come back to the US, maybe bolstering our economy more. I'd like to see more home schooling, I've always been an advocate. I'd like to go see my dad who's 89 now but I'm not too wild about possibly transmitting anything to him. I may call him and chance it if he's up for it. I bought a new truck that uses E85 so that's nice. Now I can fill up were there are fewer people when needed. From what I've seen so far it seems people are freaking out coast to coast. Lots of dry products and canned food bought from the shelves. I don't quite get the whole TP thing either but my wife seems to know, she's sure buying it! Must be a woman thing. I don't quite get why some of the stuff is disappearing from the shelves, like my potato chips! Let's leave the bread and buy all the chips. I guess they'll fly off the shelves with the Ramen noodles! Everybody stay safe and watch your six.

 

 

The thing I'm most pissed off about, besides the NHL suspension, is not being able to find TP.

I really blame the media the most, they're the ones stoking the fires of this panic.

 

That, and combined with one of my favorite quotes from the fist Men In Black movie of all sources, "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals...", creates mass hysteria...

 

I'm outside a little town in northern Wyoming - We have {as of tonight} 18 cases thu out the state with no deaths.
There is one case 25 miles from here in Cody Wyoming and I wish her luck - But that's the only case thu our county.
I went to the store a few evenings ago - shelves are mostly empty - according to store personal there has been some hording going on but there has been no supply trucks for any replenishing the shelves.
And the normal stupid hording of TP and paper products for some time now. Kinnda makes you wonder just what people are thinking - TP gone BUT soaps, detergents and sanatisers shelves are full and over flowing.
Things haven't changed for me - I live five miles in the country and I usually only go to town once a month anyways. I hope here in a few weeks when I do go to town there is at least a little grub on the shelves. TP PTHHHH I have plenty of grease rags.
Its a bad bug all the way around but the last I looked it up there has been more deaths in the US due to the regular old flu than this.
And I agree with the fine people here the good ol media has to have a doom and gloom satire to blow way up and report on ......
Stay safe everybody ......

 

We got about 6 confirmed cases the next town over from where I live. But I'm still working hard, shelves are empty here too, but it seems they grab everything but the canned food and dry goods... as for TP, I have a shower in my washroom, so worst case scenario, I shower after I drop a deuce.... sorry but theres more important things to get then TP people..... you know people used to, and still do in some place, wipe their butts with leaves FFS....

all the best to anyone affected in one way or another by this...

 

Yep, the media wants doom and gloom because it gets and holds people's attention. Plus the partisan finger pointing that is going on during this election year...…….

Nevertheless, I have distilled a few facts out of the crapload of BS data available and came up with my own conclusions. See what you think.

The virus that is causing the pandemic is named SARS-CoV2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus 2). The disease it causes is called COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019). Like the original SARS virus (remember back in 2004), it is a corona virus and causes similar symptoms to the original. The similarity between the two SARS viruses is kind of like different year versions of the seasonal flu - similar symptoms but different enough that previous vaccines don't work. Corona viruses are particularly troublesome with their ability to jump between species - both SARS viruses started in bats and probably jumped to pigs before humans (not from bat soup). W.H.O. intentionally named the new disease without the SARS moniker to avoid panic in Asian countries that were hit hard by the first SARS epidemic.

All the data thus far from China and Europe and the USA indicates that the SARS-CoV2 virus is about twice easier to transmit to others than the seasonal flu. This is quantitated by the R0 values for each. For SARS-CoV2, R0=2.5 While for the seasonal flu, R0=1.3. This means that each person with SARS-CoV2 has potential to infect 2.5 people. Of course, reducing the exposure of others to an infected person proportionately reduces the R0. This is the reason for shelter in place - simply lower # of exposures to reduce the # of infections. How effective this will be remains to be seen - but watch for R0 values to drop as an indicator.

However, the people who think they will do nothing differently should look at the statisitcs for if the COVID-19 goes the same infection route as the seasonal flu.

Seasonal flu infects 8% of US population. 8 x (2.5/1.3) = 15.3% of population could be infected with COVID-19 if R0 values are realized. USA has about 350 million people , so 0.153 x 350,000,000 = 53,000,000 possibly infected with the SARS-CoV2 virus. Of those infected, about 1.5% will die (795,000 - mostly older people or people with impaired lungs, high blood pressure, other cardiovascular problems because of inability to effectively breathe). That is when the need for respirators in hospitals comes into play. REMEMBER THIS IS A WORST CASE SCENARIO. But if it was up to the idiots on Spring Break that is pretty much exactly what would happen. Even though the young Spring Breakers would be relatively safe themselves because of youthful health, they will definitely be directly causing loss of other lives - and they need to understand that without question.

So best case is if everyone will take measures to lower that R0 for the SARS-CoV2 virus by staying home, drastically limiting contact with others in general, using disinfectants, staying healthy, and immediately taking themselves out of the infection pool if they feel sick. Reportedly China has R0=0 right now, but I really think that is a load of B.S. But probably they have been able to lower it a lot though by really putting the screws to their citizens. I predict that Americans will get their panties all in a bunch if they are FORCED to do the same. Sometimes we get used to and think we need freedoms that can come back and bite us in the ***.

My wife is a health care worker (OR nurse) in a large hospital in a city of 150,000 and my workplace has no plans on shutting down, so I'm sure I will be exposed eventually myself through her. I have coronary artery disease, high blood pressure, and reduced lung function. Hopefully they will have a respirator available for me if I need one. In the meantime I stay home, order take out, use disinfectants, and stay away from others outside my own family - not very sociable anyways.

 

That's a read and a half les, but I agree... as well I hope best of luck to yourself and all others again, I have asthma myself and allergies like no tomorrow, so breathing gets rough sometimes, and with my smoking habit(herbal), I got a small cough, so I carry my bottle of hand sanitizer, keep to myself in my own area with a mask. My mom and sisters all work from home now, my company hasn't cut hours, but we are not allowing visitors, and drivers have to stay in their vehicles while loading/unloading, doors locked at all times. Our government will pay us a certain amount weekly or bi-weekly if we have to stay home quarantined while this is happening, as well as if we have any of the symptoms, we are to stay home, call a number and they will send someone to test us.

 

Michigan went from 65 cases to over 500 in 4 days. regardless of how easy it is to survive the onset,t rate of exposure is what is somewhat scary. in the state capitol of Lansing we already have all of our schools shut down and all of our movie theaters and restaurants closed or take out delivery only. service industry people are getting laid off left and right. economically it's a little bit hard because positions lose hours or get laid off totally. as a school bus driver I've already lost 9 trips at 3 to 7 hours per trip. government offices banks credit unions are all closing lobbeys or stopping business altogether. in the recovery Community where I volunteer, churches and other venues that traditionally hold recovery meetings have closed, as well as sobriety testing facilities counseling offices and Courts and probation offices. we try to hold in house meetings, and stay connected with mentors and sponsors over Skype Facebook Etc, but even in one week it's already taking an emotional toll on many survivors of the recovery community.

 

Unfortunately IMHO the main issue of the COVID-19 has not properly been brought to the attention of all.

From all infected cases, depending on the country and region from 8 % to over 15 % need to be admitted to a hospital for care. From these between 30 % and 40 % will need ICU.

Do the math...
LesMyers city has 150'000 inhabitants, let's assume 25% get infected.
37'500 which go down with flu like symptoms but... (remember 8 to 15 % need to go to a hospital). Let's go with the lowest figure of 8%
That's 3'000 cases in hospital. From these it's known that around 1/3 will later need ICU.

That's 1'000 cases in ICU!

Les, how many ICU beds do you have in your area?

In Italy in Lombardy which includes 3 major Italian cities such as Milan, Bergamo, Brescia they had a total of 762 ICU places, ramped up to around 1'000 within 10 days. Now that area comprises some 5 Million inhabitants.

We are near complete shutdown in Europe. At the moment I call it "the eerie silence". Living close to the airport with hundreds of flights a day we are down to a handful. Nearly the whole fleet of Swiss International Airlines is grounded. From over 100 aircraft only a dozen still fly.

All shops are closed with few exceptions. Groceries, Transportation, shops without customer access may be kept open, respecting distances. I hope to be able to do some work on my Alfa Romeo restoration project.
We stay home, limit contacts to bare minimum. Everything needed is done by phone. Only grocery stores are still open. Hardware stores with limited access. Ordering our needs by mail or phone for pick-up at store locations. Most have some waiting areas in place now. Shopping centers have lanes for customers to access and leave without contact.

Good luck to everybody - stay safe.