Error_401, I don't really agree with your 25% infection rate numbers. But I don't think that infection rate being 25% or 15% or 8% is the issue. It all depends on at what point in a pandemic the preventative measures are begun so that your infection rate does not happen all at once or even better yet the virus gets starved out. The attached video is a simple explanation of the mathematics and science of why (especially note how the virus can actually be starved out if measures are taken early enough). Obviously this did not happen in Italy and Spain (and other parts of Europe) as they did not get on it soon enough. However, our local county has only 6 confirmed cases in a population of 250,000 (so we are very early in the process as described in the video). Also only 1 person in the hospital, not in ICU. It remains to be seen how this strategy will work in New York and California. Definitely more of a problem in highly populated areas but that is to be expected. Most of Indiana is not highly populated. Good for some of us - sucks for the rest!

In Indiana we are pretty much shut down also, but at a much earlier point in the disease's progress. Not forced shelter in place like New York and California but schools/restaurants/bars/etc are all shut down and travel is supposed to be emergency or work only. Many other businesses are choosing to do a preemptive shutdown. If we do not see the big spike of infections that are seen elsewhere, then I expect local restrictions to stay the same. My company (a contract manufacturer) makes hand sanitizer and bleach as products at at least one of our locations in the USA and Canada, so I think they will use this as a reason to stay open unless the local or state government shuts us down. The next week or two will tell if the measures being taken are sufficient for us in Indiana.

Chinese seem to have been able to successfully starve out the virus - reporting zero new cases for a few days now. How else could this have happened?

Another interesting thing is that if one can get a good count of new cases happening in an area, you can begin to mathematically predict the outcome for peak and duration.

 

I find it interesting that no matter how much its asked to shelter in place we get kids on beaches partying and yes a 100 years ago I would have done and thought the same thing.
As I was bored today and rolling through the tv stations I stopped on the PGA tournament in Florida. Record spectator involvement at over 150,000 standing shoulder to shoulder. These are not stupid collage kids without a care. People of all ages - STUPID IS AS STUPID DOES ........

 

Les, you are correct.

I wanted to make the point against all the "but the corona is just another flu" and what really makes it dangerous for the health care system.
My example served as an illustration to the underlying problem of exposure and up to which point you can actually do something. My assumption was in the order of a normal flu where nobody stays home once they have it but go on with their daily routine as nothing were wrong. I hope for an infection rate of even lower than 8%.

I really hope that the measures taken now will starve it out. The "flattening the curve" is what is needed at the moment. I guess that the next 3 days will determine if the measures are effective in my place.

 

I understand. What makes this virus different than the flu is that it is more infectious than the flu by about 2x (R0=2.5 vs R0=1.3), and if you contract it the base mortality rate is around 10x that of the seasonal flu (1.0% vs 0.10%) in a normal population if the health care system is NOT overwhelmed. Deaths could go much higher than that if this or various other factors happen. For example, Italy has observed a death rate of 9.3% right now. So you are very correct that Coronavirus is much more than just another flu and cannot be treated as such. But realities can be very different for different regions. Appears that Switzerland is faring pretty much like the USA in general as far as percentages of deaths of sick individuals - better than many of the European countries like France, England, Spain, Italy - so healthcare is holding out so far in your country and it seems to be better than many. But total % of population that is sick, or has been sick is higher than in the USA.

In a very simplistic and inaccurate way to tell where Switzerland is in the relative progression of COVID-19 (compared to other countries) one can compare the percent of the populations that are reported to have become sick. For Switzerland this is 0.0315% For USA this is 0.00175% (but I think this very low number is from under-reporting) For Italy this is 0.0520%. So what does this say about Italy? Seems their health care system is not as good as they are not able to handle approximately the same percentage of sick people. I'm sorry but I think this will be a very horrible outcome for Italy unless something drastically changes very soon. Looks like it is out of control there. They need to do what China did, even if it steps on the rights of the citizens. Just like Spring Beak people, what Italy does affects us all in the end.

As far as progression of the disease in my state of Indiana, the % sick is about 1/10 of that seen in Switzerland. So we are earlier in the pandemic than you and have more opportunity to reduce the ultimate effects. But it will be soon coming for us too!! It has already increased dramatically on the coasts of USA. Makes me pretty happy to live in the middle of a big country and to not have a dense population where I live. Now if that pesky city of Chicago wasn't so near (100 miles) ...….

Good luck to you!

https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...o-cases-2020-3

 

So we got the word today that Trudeau is finally closing all non essential work, it will be enforced if it comes to that. My manager came to me and told me that we are being rushed to ship as much as possible tomorrow, but she doesnt know what will happen after that, I put glue on entry door and garage door frames....... I'm a little confused on why I've been told to go to work up until now....

 

Where I live we have a population of 2500 add to that the out laying area so it's more like 3500. My company is owned by a lager corporation in Oregon. They are closing down all non essential companies they own throughout the world as of midnight tonight. Fortunately we will remain open for now. We only have 11 people that work here.

 

As of today - restricted to only essential work and travel here in Indiana. My company makes hand sanitizer as one product so we are able to stay open. They gave me a letter in case I get stopped on my way to/from work.

 

Have you wondered why two of the countries outside of China that were hit so hard with the Covid-19 are Italy and Iran ? It is the OBOR /One Belt One Road policy of China. When you sign on with China for a specific job; say a high speed train line you get the whole package from China. That includes the engineers, the steel, the equipment, the workers, and everything to create that RR system. Suddenly your country has 300, 000 Chinese in your country and they are commuting back and forth. Formula for an infection. Read this article for why Italy and Iran were hit with Covid-19 : Like someone said above in Post no.11, this is the time to reevaluate all the manufacturing that was shipped to China and start bringing them home now before they are gone forever. There are many good reasons for this.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archiv...y-and-iran.php

 

I've been screaming about bringing manufacturing back to the US since I learned what NAFTA was from my dad as a kid. I honestly don't think it will happen as contemporary corporations care more about profits at any cost than anything else. Why would Apple pay an American worker $20 an hour when they can pay a Chinese one $3?

 

This sums up what I've been seeing here in the most highly effected area of the country:

https://www.urbandictionary.com/defi...ovidiot&page=2

Seriously, people are out and about like nothing is happening.